The hottest trend of international oil transportat

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From the perspective of the economic situation and policies of all countries in the world, the internal and external markets have still not reached a basic balance, the deep-seated impact of the financial crisis is still on, the pace of economic recovery is different, and the monetary policy is divided, just as the dawn has come, but there are still dark clouds scattered on the horizon, and the pace of global economic progress in 2011 will still falter

1. The world economic growth tends to weaken, and the growth of global oil demand slows down. The report of the world economic situation and outlook 2011 released by the United Nations in December 2010 points out that since the middle of 2010, the global economic growth has slowed significantly, and the world economic growth is expected to decline from 3.6% in 2010 to 3.1% in 2011. Compared with the sluggish recovery of developed countries, developing countries will continue to promote the global economic recovery in the next two years, but the growth momentum will weaken. It is expected that the growth rate of developing countries will drop from 7% in 2010 to 6% in 2011, and Asian developing countries will continue to grow strongly under the leadership of China and India. In 2011, China's economic growth rate is expected to be 8.9% and India's 8.2%. Although the global financial crisis has had a serious impact on developing countries, many developing countries had a good macroeconomic foundation and sufficient policy buffers before the crisis. At the same time, the active stimulus policies of emerging economies have also effectively promoted the growth of domestic demand and slowed down external shocks, and their recovery is far stronger than that of developed countries

the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported in December 2010 that due to the increase in demand in North America and China, the agency raised its 2011 global crude oil demand forecast for the third consecutive month, raising the 2011 global oil demand growth forecast to 88.8 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.6%, but still lower than 2.9% in 2010. Among them, the oil demand of OECD countries was 45.72 million barrels per day, down 0.4% from 2010, The oil demand of non OECD countries was 43.05 million barrels per day, an increase of 3.7%, lower than the growth rate of 5% in 2010. The oil demand of China was 9.7 million barrels per day and that of India was 3.44 million barrels per day. Emerging economies are still the main force leading the growth of global oil demand. The oil demand gap between OECD countries and non OECD countries has further narrowed, and the demand growth in Asia continues to exceed that in other regions

2. The international oil price is expected to rise, and investment in the oil field will increase

although the new energy markets in various countries are developing in full swing, the pattern of oil and gas as the main force of global energy supply will not change in the short term. The progress of economic recovery, the exchange rate of the US dollar and the basic factors of supply and demand are still the three major factors affecting the trend of international crude oil prices in 2011. Analysts predict that with the recovery of the global economy, oil demand will continue to grow. The new round of quantitative easing policy of the Federal Reserve will basically make the dollar relatively weak in 2011. There are nearly 300 new material high-tech enterprises. These factors will support higher oil prices. The average international oil price in 2011 will be higher than that in 2010, and is expected to fluctuate between 70 and 100 dollars/barrel, with an average of about 85 dollars/barrel. However, OPEC still has huge production capacity and OECD's commercial inventory remains at a five-year high, which makes the oil supply and demand expected to be loose, and the slow development of the global economy does not support the high annual average oil price rise. Even if the oil price surges above $100 due to capital factors such as speculation, it will eventually fall because there is no more support for basic supply and demand

after the tightening of investment in the past two years, under the optimistic situation that the current high oil price is expected to continue, oil companies have abandoned the conservative style during the recession and plan to increase the investment in 2011, hoping to find more oil sources. According to the latest survey of investment bank Barclays Capital, global oil companies will spend a total of $490billion on new oil wells, drilling platforms and other infrastructure in 2011, an increase of 11% over 2010. The increase in expenditure also partly reflects the rise in production costs. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the increase in capacity in the United States, Canada, Russia and other countries will drive the average daily crude oil production in non OPEC regions to 53.1 million barrels in 2011. OPEC also said that from 2010 to 2014, OPEC member countries including Nigeria will invest $155 billion in the development of 140 crude oil extraction projects to expand production and meet the demand of the world crude oil market

3. The growth rate of transport capacity supply is greater than that of demand, and the recovery of the tanker transportation market is delayed

although the global oil demand rebounds with the economic recovery, the recovery of the tanker market is delayed because the growth rate of transport capacity supply is far greater than that of demand. According to incomplete statistics, the 20%vlcc and 30%suezmax ships originally scheduled to be delivered in 2010 were postponed to the launch in 2011, and the dismantling volume of single hull oil tankers is already very few. From table 7 and table 8, it can be seen that the growth rate of new ship capacity in 2011 is quite rare. Except for aframax ships, the growth rate of other ship types' capacity is more than two digits, and the growth rate of VLCC ships' capacity is 15.9%, which will bring great pressure to the VLCC transportation market in 2011. Too many new ships enter the market at an accelerated speed, but the actual demand growth cannot immediately absorb this new capacity only in 2000, The recovery of tanker transportation will take time

the revenue of oil tanker transportation depends on the supply and demand relationship of the market, and the manufacturing enterprises can also grade the bolt fasteners through specific product classification. Judging from the supply and demand sides of the tanker transportation market in 2011, the situation is not optimistic. The rapid growth of transportation capacity will intensify market competition and bring great pressure to the downward trend of freight rates. Judging from the fact that the contract transaction price in the oil tanker futures market in 2011 is lower than the freight rate in the spot market, all parties in the market are not optimistic about the oil transportation market in 2011, and the continued rise of international oil prices will increase the transportation costs of Oil Tanker Owners. For owners, 2011 will be quite difficult

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